Scott Martin

You’ve probably heard about the concept of sabermetrics, discussed in "Moneyball," the ground-breaking book about baseball's Oakland A's. It was further used in a book I read a couple years ago called "Soccernomics," which applies economic analysis to soccer.

In "Soccernomics" the authors' number-crunching debunked much traditional wisdom in the sport, explaining, for instance, why English scouts tend to favor blond players. (They stand out on the field, appealing to scouts' "sight-based prejudices.")

I’ll use a version of sabermetrics today to talk about the importance of numbers in cycling.

Sure, you need a high watts-per-kilogram (strength-to-weight) ratio in order to kick butt. But what are the hidden metrics that contribute to success? I've tortured the data and uncovered the critical predictors. Call it Cyclenomics:

Cost of bicycle. Between $2,000 and $5,000: Your lightweight bike makes you a better rider. Over $5,000: You are a poseur who doesn't ride much. Under $250: Real cyclists don't shop Walmart.

Number of cycling websites bookmarked. More than 6: You spend too much time online and not enough in the saddle. Fewer than 3: You're out of the loop on cycling equipment, gossip and drug suspensions. Because you are boring, no one will train with you and you won't improve.

Number of traffic lights on your commute. More than 7: Your route is too busy and dangerous to achieve optimal fitness. Not only can't you get a good workout in stop-and-go traffic, but there's a 3-in-5 probability that someone will door you.

Number of cycling T-shirts in dresser. More than 20: A veteran of numerous races and/or organized rides, you have the experience -- and the future bike-cleaning rags -- necessary to win.

Ratio of household chores completed to hours ridden. Ideal ratio: 2 to 1. Any higher and you're not riding enough. Any lower and you can't focus on training because you are getting divorced.

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